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View Full Version : North Korea fires up its hamster-wheel powered nuclear program...


Cain
May 25th, 2009, 06:25 PM
...And once again the United Nations Security Council and everyone except Russia and China falls into hysterics.

Basically, the power-struggle over the succession in the DPRK is just making their policy even wierder than usual. Kim Jong Un seems to be leading the pack, and as a 26 year old, internationally schooled playboy, will probably be driving the DPRK's top military cadres up the wall.

Since both Japan and South Korea are reporting that the military was the driving force behind the most recent (and most certainly not "surprising" tests, no matter what the idiots in the media say) this likely a mix of putting on diplomatic pressure for more concessions and the neverending political warfare taking place at the top levels of government.

Basically, Japan ain't getting nuked again anytime soon.

Will.
May 25th, 2009, 06:31 PM
O.o Propaganda. Bluntly. best way to not get nuked, spend a whole bunch of money on miscellaneous costs, advertise that you're not going to get nuked, and hope to god it doesn't happen.


Everybody does it, Japan is the forefather of this kind of thing, and Korea is unstable, so no worries there, they are content fighting amongst themselves...

Tsar Phalanxia
May 25th, 2009, 06:36 PM
http://i291.photobucket.com/albums/ll286/Phalanxia/1236631828966.jpg
I've heard that China is starting to get irritated by the DPRK being a drain on China's resources. Of course, that could affect policy, but is it true, and will it have an effect? Also, what do you think the chances of reunifictaion are, in both the medium and long term?

Will.
May 25th, 2009, 06:40 PM
http://i291.photobucket.com/albums/ll286/Phalanxia/1236631828966.jpg
I've heard that China is starting to get irritated by the DPRK being a drain on China's resources. Of course, that could affect policy, but is it true, and will it have an effect? Also, what do you think the chances of reunifictaion are, in both the medium and long term?

Just look at that face, O.o... Would you trust that face?

Yiuel
May 25th, 2009, 08:20 PM
Also, what do you think the chances of reunifictaion are, in both the medium and long term?

It all depends if it is done within the next 30 years.

Most young South Koreans that I have heard about are rather unconcerned at best with reunification. Some of these actually think it is a waste of ressources. While Kim Dae-Jung's generation is happy speaking about reunification, those of my age, I have been told, don't care at all about it, and might actually be tired of those antics. (Like a lot of young people in Quebec, like me, being tired of Independence antics, again, like me.)

So, if within 30 years, it is done, it will occur, even if not smoothly. If not, reunification will be a lot harder. Wait yet another 30 years, and it will be labelled as an impossibility.

Cain : You are dealing with a State who's leaders have been insane for almost 50 years. You don't know what they will do. However, they are practicing the same politics that another country that has been labelled so far as sane. The US has used the atomic bomb, actually, so it is always a possibility.

However, this is clearly only a show-off, to scare the crap out of its neighbors, especially the easily scared Japan (which sits on the other side of a commonly shared sea), and the always worrying cousin Daehanminguk (South Korea). It's also a way to tell the US government : "Don't you dare touch me."

So I would still agree with you that, despite their obvious insanity, they will not attempt to nuke anyone in the near future.

Cain
May 26th, 2009, 02:11 PM
I've heard that China is starting to get irritated by the DPRK being a drain on China's resources. Of course, that could affect policy, but is it true, and will it have an effect? Also, what do you think the chances of reunifictaion are, in both the medium and long term?

Yes. The thing is though, the Chinese don't want North Korea turning into a failed state on their border, so they will prop up the regime as long as thousands of refugees don't come flooding into China (as an aside, if you're fleeing a regime for China, you're really fucked).

In the medium term, I don't see it happening. Kim Jong Ung is probably more open to it, but his power base will be less secure. He'd need to really consolidate himself before any progress could be made, and I don't see anything new happening before he comes to power.

Cain
May 26th, 2009, 02:30 PM
Cain : You are dealing with a State who's leaders have been insane for almost 50 years. You don't know what they will do. However, they are practicing the same politics that another country that has been labelled so far as sane. The US has used the atomic bomb, actually, so it is always a possibility.

However, this is clearly only a show-off, to scare the crap out of its neighbors, especially the easily scared Japan (which sits on the other side of a commonly shared sea), and the always worrying cousin Daehanminguk (South Korea). It's also a way to tell the US government : "Don't you dare touch me."

So I would still agree with you that, despite their obvious insanity, they will not attempt to nuke anyone in the near future.

Oh? If they'e so insane, then how have they managed to keep a grip on power for nearly 60 years? Could it be that, in fact, North Korea realizes the value of "acting out" and thus raising the stakes, without undertaking any actual actions which would get it wiped off the map?

North Korea has the capacity to attack South Korea, Japan and US regional bases. Yet it has not. Why? Because it realizes such an action would be the prelude to its destruction. The regime has an understanding of rationality and the effects of its own actions, making deterrable and negotiable.

Also, Juche. If you understood Juche and the prism through which North Korea views its international relations, you would know one of its major tenets is to not be unduly swayed by "great power chauvinism".

The last time they tested their missiles and nuclear weapons, they were clearly attempting to restart the Six Nations talks, and gain access to their freezed overseas funds. Which they did. Mission successful. So the question is, what do they want now? I haven't paid too much attention to the talks, because they bore the hell out of me, but North Korea clearly wants something, and has resorted to another transnational temper tantrum to get it.

To be honest, the vast majority of analysts agree the greater risk comes from a North Korean missile spiralling out of control and accidentally hitting mainland Japan than of a North Korean nuclear first strike.

In short, just because you do not understand their motives and worldview does not make them "insane". I mean, seriously, am I talking to Dr. Krauthammer here?

Yiuel
May 26th, 2009, 03:34 PM
I do not disagree with your analysis. And being insane doesn't mean not being bright politically. Politically, North Korea is actually very brilliant, and is acting exactly like a power who doesn't want to be disturb. I'm looking as well as what the North Korean government wants now.

I have received a fair course about Juche. I know especially about the part of being fully autonomous, or autonomous as much as they can. I have deep respect for that part of the ancient North Korean ideal. But North Korea today is only Juche in name (the same way China is socialist).

Their insanity is more about how they are doing internally. We do not have a lot of sure info, but internally, it is not a brilliant state of affair, especially for a country that, 50 years ago, was well underway of being industrialized like its neighboring Japan. But I think this is all to interpretation, and I could well label my own country's government as insane. I have used the wrong word.

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As an aside, politics are getting wimpy these days. Starting a war is badly seen (for good reasons), and North Korea's government is probably doing very well at playing with that feeling.