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Old December 12th, 2008, 04:59 PM   #1
bouchie
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Default Falsifying theories

I found an interesting article that, originally, I thought was related to global warming. It is, in a sense, but it is really more about how we should go about rejecting theories and hypotheses and how some of those manage to stay around, despite contradicting evidence.

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/12/08/...s-evidence-of/

I thought it was a very informative article and certainly (not probably) will help me in my continuous debate against anthropogenic global warming.
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Old December 12th, 2008, 05:27 PM   #2
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

Quote:
Originally Said by bouchie View Post
I found an interesting article that, originally, I thought was related to global warming. It is, in a sense, but it is really more about how we should go about rejecting theories and hypotheses and how some of those manage to stay around, despite contradicting evidence.

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/2008/12/08/...s-evidence-of/

I thought it was a very informative article and certainly (not probably) will help me in my continuous debate against anthropogenic global warming.
You silly Canadian. Of course we're causing global warming.

Well, maybe not you, strictly. After all, Canadians aren't human; they're just silly.
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Old December 12th, 2008, 07:14 PM   #3
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

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You silly Canadian. Of course we're causing global warming.

Well, maybe not you, strictly. After all, Canadians aren't human; they're just silly.
No, I don't agree -with either of your statements.

If we are causing global warming, our part is small, if not insignificant, compared to the natural forces that do affect temperature change, like sun-spot activity, El Nino, Pacific decadal oscillation, volcanic activity. There are so many other factors that affect climate change that to point the finger solely at human activity is ridiculous.

But I believe that human activity plays no role in global warming.
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Old December 12th, 2008, 08:13 PM   #4
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

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But I believe that human activity plays no role in global warming.
O RLY?


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Old December 13th, 2008, 01:23 AM   #5
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

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Originally Said by bouchie View Post
No, I don't agree -with either of your statements.

If we are causing global warming, our part is small, if not insignificant, compared to the natural forces that do affect temperature change, like sun-spot activity, El Nino, Pacific decadal oscillation, volcanic activity. There are so many other factors that affect climate change that to point the finger solely at human activity is ridiculous.

But I believe that human activity plays no role in global warming.
I attended a wonderful lecture on global warming a few months ago. I wish you could see it. It's presented by a man who has been studying climate change since rising CO2 levels were observed. He lays out all of the energy inputs into our climate system and all of the energy outputs, and simply shows that if the inputs are greater than the outputs, then the temperature will go up. He is very blunt about what he doesn't know, so it's nothing like An Inconvenient Semi-Truth.

In his first slides he lists all of the inputs and all of the outputs. He then goes through each of the inputs and outputs, and tells you what we know, what we think, and what we have absolutely no idea about. He explains that the climate is extremely complex, and that the huge equations have yet to even be solved.But as he presents slide after slide of unedited data, the message becomes clear: humans are doing something, and that this isn't fully natural.
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Old December 13th, 2008, 07:14 PM   #6
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

but if humans are 'natural'
isn't everything they do
natural?
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Old December 15th, 2008, 05:19 PM   #7
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

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Originally Said by scikidus View Post
In his first slides he lists all of the inputs and all of the outputs. He then goes through each of the inputs and outputs, and tells you what we know, what we think, and what we have absolutely no idea about. He explains that the climate is extremely complex, and that the huge equations have yet to even be solved.But as he presents slide after slide of unedited data, the message becomes clear: humans are doing something, and that this isn't fully natural.
Did his data account for Urban-heat-island? My view on human-made global warming is like my view on god - will not believe in it until it is proven otherwise.

Going that route, my confidence in the human-made global warming theory was severly shaken when it was shown that the IPCC hockey-stick graph is false. The methodology used by Mann and his team was faulty - the team used an algorithm that produces the same graph, even if random red-noise is input into the algorithm. So, the experts have been discredited to a certain extent.

On top of that, there are other theories that account for part, if not all, of the climate change that you don't hear about in the mainstream, but they're not conspiracy theories. They're alternatives to the popular theory.

Now, sciky, I said my confidence in the popular theory, which I believe states that we're are the sole contributors of CO2 emissions and we're are solely responsible for climate change. Had I seen this lecture you refer to, I'm sure I would have learned something new. I can tell you already that I'm looking at the other side again because I just saw a picture of Kilamanjaro (sp?). All the snow at the top of the mountain is gone. I also noticed that in the 1970s there was a lot more trees around the mountain than there are in the current day. Hmm...is it that CO2 levels are rising thanks to our car or is it because the Earth can't absorb as much CO2 as before thanks to a lack of trees?I continuously question my own views on this matter but I don't buy the popular paranoia.

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Next time you're near a running car. Suck on the tail pipe.
Great argument rzm. Shatner would be. Proud of your. Oral skills.

Seriously, you think I'd be stupid enough not to notice where smog comes from? I don't mind if it gets a little warmer - I do want to breathe though.
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Old December 15th, 2008, 05:36 PM   #8
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Default Re: Falsifying theories

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Originally Said by bouchie View Post
Great argument rzm. Shatner would be. Proud of your. Oral skills.
Next up, rocket man.

Quote:
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Seriously, you think I'd be stupid enough not to notice where smog comes from? I don't mind if it gets a little warmer - I do want to breathe though.
Well you are in Canadia....so maybe?
And I hear you on the breathing part.

But yeah, humans play a part in global warming. That is, if global warming actually exists.
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